How do we use monte carlo simulation for heavy oil recovery?
As far i understand your question is regarding to Chemical and specially Oil and Gas or Energy Conversion thing. although Its not my field but still was interesting so i did look for exploration. and i did found that probablity could be calculated based on geophysical (seismic surveys) means how much that perticular oil field is resemble to Monte Carlo oil field. and How much its different than that if its resemble than that are a quite chances that simulation could be work with some amount of modification. and there are a huge amount of of chances to recover heavy oi on starting trial and error bases than to Research and Development and to Productiona and distribution to Evolution.
here this pdf might help you to understand.
I did not understand it fully as Its not my faculty. but still according to this pdf they did started one project on turky`s some of oil field by simulation and most of their oil field they did achive a success.
I hope that will help you to build understanding with regarding to your question and might help you to find your answer.